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Year of 2015 into regulatory P2P financial bubble is about to start

in 2014, doubling lending industry a number of indicators of P2P network. Each capital entering P2P, capital flows into a growth spurt. PE/VC the average valuation of the loan industry of the P2P network is on the rise, valuations expansion has two consecutive quarters of significant financial growth in the market value of listed company over the Internet.

at present, the short-term funding needs of micro-enterprises has become a net loan assets end of the main needs of the industry, most of the platform level below 1 million per capita (56.7%), the financing cycle in less than 3 months (65.2%). However, the opaque credit lead to net comprehensive financing cost of loans at a high level, including non-interest costs accounted for relatively high. According to administration figures, by the end of 2013 national industry and commerce registration 15.278 million enterprises, individual business 45.641 million households, has been corporate credit information system covers only 32%, there are nearly 40 million businesses, merchants bank credit system "stranger", most of which are small and micro businesses. Lack of funding body credit data is currently a net credit risk management platform assets faced a major problem.

because of low credit transparency of financing body, the introduction of security companies, high security costs and platform fees become a P2P net credit risk the main means of control, financing in addition to pay investors interest pay P2P platform loan service charges and stage service fees, service fees at beginning of period cost platform as well as a variety of security costs, resulting in comprehensive financing costs rose sharply. In 10000 Yuan, 12 months of financing, for example, according to the credit rating of the borrower and the mortgage or pledge different, pleasant in the loan, all credit, Lu Jin part of the platform, such as financing costs between about 660~2219.9 Yuan according to an equivalent calculating principal and interest repayment, borrowers, loan interest rates between 11.97%~29.14%. Three platform consolidation loan interest rates exceeding the ceiling of 25%, in which pleasant upper limit for loan financing costs higher, up to 2219.9 Yuan, corresponding to annual interest rates of more than 29%. Platform fees, security fees and other noninterest expenses accounted for in the total financing for the cost of 34%~70%.

  under the lending industry annual report disclosure 2014 China network data, actual financing costs nearly half of 2014 P2P platform at 20%, under the above line the average interest rate of small loan companies and private lending. As the economy slowed, increasing costs of labor, capital and other pressures, now small micro-enterprise net assets profit margin is only 5%~8%, but the finance charges increased significantly. First half of 2014 financial expenses grew by 16.5% above-scale industrial enterprises, medium and small micro-enterprise financial expenses increased 17.5% (given the risk considerations, currently the general rise in interest rates of bank loans to SMEs by more than 30%).

by the end of 2014 at 78.49 million Internet banking users, and even if only 10% higher risk appetite, willing to try P2P-banking, will also provide 7.849 million potential market. P2P investors scale growth and development space is enormous. But in contrast, effective financing needs is clearly insufficient, P2P platform premium financing is the subject of "far", the current full scale (full scale refers to a financing project set in full within the time limit required to raise funds) available are getting shorter, investors "funds to guard" is widespread. In January 2015, network statistics by loan House 31 sample platform, 20 less than 1-minute average full scale, up to 64.5% per cent. 10 platforms investors idle cycles for more than 4 days (inclusive), than 32.2%.

due to the lack of effective financing needs, high quality assets to expand growing difficulty, become an important cause of net lending industry. For some platforms that have been financed, injection of capital is difficult to scale high growth for your business. Since the second half of 2014, due to risk management issues such as limiting withdrawals or suspend operation of increasing number of platforms. In particular, the quarter of 2014 years net lending industry frequently broke big events of default, triggering P2P platform "failures". Number of issue platforms up to 170. After eliminating fraud, run platform, a total of 102 platform has difficulty or suspended operations and other management issues, up to 60% per cent.

  due to the lack of barriers to entry, industry standards, and effective supervision, some P2P platform in the form of pool illegal fund raising, resulting in higher yields, "Ponzi schemes", severely dilutes the P2P industry formal social position and brand value. Meanwhile, some banks, dealers, predators listed companies such as capital has been racing to control the P2P platform, product homogenization of serious cases, due to intense competition, P2P platform costs soared. Now gets a registered users cost about 60~80 Yuan, the average conversion rate of about 10%, according to this estimate, a cost effective investment customers amounted to 600~800 Yuan, as evidenced by its operating costs.


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